Energy for Prosperity
Since 2010, $9 trillion has been spent globally on wind, solar, electric vehicles energy storage, electrification and power grids, but despite this expensive effort — mostly at taxpayer expense — the share of final energy consumption by carbon-free energy sources is advancing by approximately a scant 0.3% to 0.6% per year. It will probably double in the next three years, which is impressive. It’s still too slow to maintain prosperity.
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Electricity only accounts for a third of our energy. Solar has grown impressively, but it’s ability to replace fossil fuels is getting carried away. We need more gas and oil capacity.
By the end of the century, the world might increase solar to 5% but we need to focus on where we will get our other 95%.
About 80% of our industrial capacity comes from fossil fuels.
We have to be realistic about the pace of decarbonization.
This following vital chart includes everything.
After $9 trillion, progress is slow. This chart includes all energy sources. It’s a linear industrial transition. In Europe, it’s growing about half a percent a year, and in the US, it’s growing about .3% a year.
Building transmission lines is difficult. Also, electrifying a country is much more expensive than gas.
There are a lot of supply problems and a shortage of engineers.
We’re approaching the brownouts stage.
“We’re getting more and more close to the point where we might have some kind of brownout situation,” Cembalest said.
The US has achieved energy independence for the first time and this administration is focused on national security.
Renewables did well during the free money phase from the Fed, and have been decimated ever since, about a 40% underperformance.
There are a lot of ways to produce sustainable jet fuel, but it’s extremely expensive and they have a negative energy deficit.
Cembalest points out that fast progress comes when people don’t have to pay this much for it.
The Morgan report’s findings are in line with the latest edition of the Energy Institute’s “Statistical Review of World Energy,” which found that coal, natural gas, and oil remained the dominant source of energy in 2023, and coal consumption and production hit record highs.
While renewables are growing, these analyses show that fossil fuels will be with us for many decades to come, whether we like it or not.
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