If Reuters’s reporting is correct, it reveals a major problem for the U.S. military in securing ammunition. No one has ever mentioned this problem, which is largely inconceivable. Like so many government problems, it has absurd origins.
Since Russia seized Crimea in 2014, policymakers in America and Europe repeatedly failed to address warnings about the sorry condition of the West’s munitions industry.
According to Reuters, the US has a serious shell shortage, and the EU’s shell production is far less than originally stated.
The delay in the funding package had nothing to do with the shell shortage in Ukraine. It’s so much worse than we could imagine.
SHOCKING INCOMPETENCE
The US only produces 36,000 shells a month. Expectations that shell production will increase much is unlikely. The Reuters article indicates it’s a plateau using existing plants.
Under Barack Obama, there was sometimes zero shell production. From 2014 to 2015, the US added no shells. Shell production increased under Donald Trump. However, we are very limited in how much we can produce since we shuttered all our factories for environmental reasons.
Although shell production has increased, it’s not anywhere near as much as in 2018.
TNT is the 19th-century explosive used in shells. The West decided that producing TNT was environmentally unfriendly, so it shut down all TNT factories. There is only one factory left in the West—it’s in Poland.
The US decided to build a plant to replace TNT. It was stable and environmentally friendly. They built a factory but didn’t produce the explosives. Today, when industrial skills and management have atrophied, this is challenging.
It can’t be done quickly.
The Reuters article said all the factories that make the shell are state-owned with private contractors who have to make a profit. This is not what they are doing in Russia and China. It will take time to replace TNT. The factory is ten years beyond schedule and it has been frozen so the US is relying on the Poland factory to supply its explosives.
The production process has doubled in cost. The US hasn’t made gunpowder since Reagan. So, a decision was made to build a plant to make gunpowder, but then the US discovered that they didn’t produce the chemical components they needed to make the gunpowder. And practically no one in the West makes the components. Gunpowder is needed to provide the shells, and TNT is needed for the explosive charge.
The two biggest producers of gunpowder are China and India. Russians do have factories running to make gunpowder and have no shortage.
There is no explanation of how these problems will be overcome. When the US tries to start production, all kinds of problems arise.
The Biden number of 80,000 shells a month, a 100,000 by 2026, will not happen. The factory in Poland is working to capacity, which is high risk.
Our factories are extremely over budget and a decade behind schedule.
The article admits in Congress that the problems for Ukraine, the extreme shell shortage faced by Ukraine, is the product of this shell crisis. The delay in the $60 billion funding package has nothing to do with Urkaine’s shell shortage.
The lack of shells is causing heavy losses for Ukraine.
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The US flies by the seat of its pants, allows environmentalists to control national security, and there is no forward-thinking. We are destroying our national security further with insane climate change rules.
WE’RE LOOKING FOR WAR UNDER THESE CONDITIONS
Recently, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Mihály Orbán took it upon himself to meet with Presidents Xi, Putin, Zelenskyy, and former President Trump. He wants peace and operates on the obvious – Ukraine cannot defeat Russia.
The West is angry that Orbán went to broker peace.
The UK and Germany have less than a week’s worth of ammunition and cannot defend themselves, and no country in the EU can defend itself. The US can’t either.
Hungary holds the rotating presidency of the EU Council and plans to hold an informal foreign affairs summit in late August. He wants to resolve the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
If the US enters the war, it’s likely we can’t defeat them without adequate shells, and many of our sons and daughters would die. Outside of Kuwait, the US hasn’t won a war since World War II. Our member nations in NATO are dependents.
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