The Federal Reserve’s key real-time model for tracking U.S. economic activity has turned negative, signaling that the nation could already have entered a recession.
The GDPNow gauge, a widely watched measurement from the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank, indicated Thursday that real gross domestic product shrank by 1.0% in the second quarter from April through June.
While the official advance estimate of Q2 performance will not be released for another month, this preliminary reading shows the second quarter in a row of negative growth in the economy after GDP contracted 1.6% in Q1.
A recession is marked by two consecutive quarters of negative growth.
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) will make the official determination in a month, but, hey, no mean tweets.
“If the U.S. economy is already in a recession with historically low unemployment, imagine how much worse this recession will become once employers react to the recession with mass layoffs. Plus, as unemployment surges, consumer prices, rents, and interest rates will keep rising,” Peter Schiff tweeted.
We’ve likely been in a recession.
BREAKING — Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta revises Q2 GDP Prediction down, now predicts -1% GDP Growth, signaling possible official start of US recession. pic.twitter.com/6yEZgvZTss
— Election Wizard 🇺🇸 (@ElectionWiz) June 30, 2022
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